A new study by the Digital Forensic Center, “Elections Under Scrutiny: Threats to the Electoral Process in Montenegro,” was presented at a round table held at the Science and Technology Park in Podgorica.
The study was presented by Marko Banović, Chief Analyst of the Digital Forensic Center, who said that the main objective of the study is to shed light, through an analysis of documented cases of Russian interference in electoral processes in Europe, on the patterns and methods that have already been tested within the EU.
He emphasized that one of the objectives of the study is also to assess the real risks of applying similar operational models in Montenegro’s pre-election period ahead of the 2027 parliamentary and local elections.
The study states that Montenegro is entering the 2027 electoral cycle amid prolonged political instability, a fragmented party system, and pronounced social polarization. Such an environment, it is assessed, makes the electoral process particularly vulnerable to foreign informational, political, and social influence operations.
During the presentation, it was pointed out that Russian activity in Europe today is not based solely on classical propaganda, but on a complex hybrid model that combines disinformation, cyber operations, political interference, extremist structures, organized crime, religious and identity-based narratives, as well as economic and energy levers of influence.
When it comes to Montenegro, the study warns that disinformation campaigns by Russian-Serbian proxies have already shaped public opinion during previous electoral cycles. The narratives identified as particularly sensitive include the alleged endangerment of Serbs, constructs about “ambassadoristan,” issues of language and symbols, the instrumentalization of Kosovo, anti-EU messages, as well as topics that can be used to fuel identity-based polarization in society.
Banović pointed out that the media space, social networks, and the possibility of coordinated dissemination of manipulative content represent a particular vulnerability. In that context, he recalled cases in which disinformation, coordinated behavior, and amplification on digital platforms produced significant social and political effects in a short period of time.
The study also addresses the role of the Serbian Orthodox Church as an actor with a pronounced mobilization capacity that goes beyond the religious framework and enters the sphere of national and political mobilization. It was particularly emphasized that religious and identity-based narratives could become key instruments of polarization ahead of the elections, especially if linked to extremist structures and political actors.
DFC also presented an assessment of new Russian operational patterns, including the activities of structures linked to the Directorate for Strategic Partnership and Cooperation under the supervision of Sergey Kiriyenko. In this section, the study points to the possibility of applying models previously tested in Moldova and Hungary, through coordinated action in the informational, political, and socio-religious spheres.
At the round table, a network of local and regional actors operating behind the scenes and tasked with destabilizing Montenegro during the electoral process was also presented. The DFC analyst stressed that, due to ongoing investigations, details of this network will not be shared at this stage.
The concluding part of the study is dedicated to recommendations for strengthening institutional and societal resilience to hybrid threats, with a particular focus on protecting the electoral process. Banović emphasized that the establishment of the DFC Task Force is the result of previous work and the assessment that the fight against hybrid threats requires a broader, coordinated approach, especially in the absence of a systemic initiative by state institutions.
He announced that DFC will soon send invitations to relevant institutions to appoint their representatives to the Task Force, with the aim of establishing more effective cooperation, information exchange, and joint action in protecting the electoral process from hybrid threats and foreign malign influence.
The Digital Forensic Center stated that protecting electoral integrity is not merely a technical or administrative issue, but a matter of national security, democratic resilience, and Montenegro’s European future.
The full study is available for download HERE.